Just a couple of weeks ago (October 2006) we wrote in these pages: "Living in a household with a near-teenager, who has a lot of school peers who seem to be rather more spoiled than the norm, we are in a position to assure the world that portable CD players are no longer "cool." The fact that they are a more sensible and long-term medium for music storage is completely immaterial, as is the CEA forecast's emphasis on generic MP3 players -- whose prices today (and profits) far exceed the introduction prices of portable CD players 10 years ago. It is, once again, down to branding. It is all iPod, iPod, iPod, all the iTime."
Did we get slapped in the face with the Microsoft Zune coming out much better in a thoroughly professional report from ABI Research? Their survey, which we will comment on later, was conducted with a base of 1750 teens and adults who were asked if they were likely to be purchasing an MP3 player in the near future, or already had one. Those that qualified as "yes" were given some Microsoft Zune literature to read -- which included the looks and features of the player.
Then the fun began as the surveyed were asked about the possibility of them buying a Microsoft Zune instead of either an iPod (first purchase or replacement) or a generic player.
From the sifted results a full 58% of existing iPod owners said they were "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to buy a Microsoft Zune. 59% of people who owned another brand of player also fell into those two categories.
In another sign of disloyalty to Apple -- and therefore Steve Jobs -- only 15% of respondents said they were "not likely" or "not at all likely" to buy the Microsoft Zune.
That is a major level of potential disloyalty for a company whose Macintosh owners range close to maniacal in their addiction to the machines, the software and the applications. And for those who might wonder if Microsoft might not have commissioned this report, at least indirectly; it is part of the Consumer Electronic Research Service.
Why the results, do you wonder, and are they true? Did they tell those surveyed that this was a Microsoft product? How many of those surveyed were both iPod and Mac users? There are many other questions that can be asked, not least that an Internet survey -- which this was -- is an arena where you simply cannot verify if the person on the other end is laughing out loud as they serve up phony results to an unwitting recipient. If anyone ever asks me ID questions in order to let me access their information, I am usually a 30-year old woman living with her widowed mother in a ghost town in Oregon; I have the surname of a well known science fiction book character; I have a reading age of grade 8 and graduated from high school because I was good at basketball…
Among the additional features of the Microsoft Zune is peer-to-peer sharing, and this is the only one that Steve Jobs has publicly dissed, because you won't "get the girl." Most commentators have shrugged that feature off, although ABI Research say in their report that there is a lot more than could be done with that capability. I have no idea what they are thinking about there. But another feature that we are sure about is X-box connectivity - which, depending on sales, may turn into a big deal and be a separate class of loyalty. There are also rumors that the Microsoft can turn the product into a gaming platform of its own.
I think now that Microsoft has a better chance of market traction because, although the last generation of iPod is a cute little storage of 30 Gbyte of memory, it has been the only serious game in town. I hate to say it, but if I was in the market for a player, I would rather my money went towards the Bill and Melissa Gates Foundation than into Steve Jobs' pocket. And the bigger screen would be another decider, although I probably would still need to wear my glasses.
If Microsoft can deliver the goods, without hiccups, viruses, and lock ups -- if it allows its people to properly market it -- then they have a chance at it.
Apple is undoubtedly waiting for market reaction before they throw a new product into the mix. I am told it is "ready to go" by some vendors who are supplying components -- and that will make the whole equation even more complex.
The only sure thing from all of this is that vendors like Creative, Rio and iRiver have been increasingly marginalized. I would love to be a fly on the wall at their marketing meetings. But, then, I'd be too small to wear noise-reducing headphones listening to my iZunePod...or something.
